The eruption at Fagradalsfjall has halted. No lava has been erupted in the period 18 September to 18 October 2021 (or to the time of writing). The seismic swarm at Kelir has lessened. Gas emissions have decreased. The aviation code has therefore been lowered.
The eruption will not be declared over for some time. It is not possible to tell if this is a temporary lull or the eruption has ended; the eruption may resume at the same location in Fagradalsfjall or at a new fissure. As the authorities have pointed out, this can only be determined in retrospect.
The volcanic hazards are currently: gas, high temperatures both in the area and the lava field, earthquakes and rockfalls.
It’s been a few days since we looked at the latest earthquake swarm at Kelir, which is on-going. Here are the updated plots.
From the plots we see a slow decrease in average depth. This is borne out by the scatter plots. Let’s look at them.
Whether or not the eruption will resume and where, only time will tell.
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Raw earthquake data: IMO
IMO: The Civil protection crisis level lowered from alert to uncertainty phase | News | Icelandic Meteorological office (vedur.is)